Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1594 SFO 18:47 → ANC 22:40 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 212 SFO 19:47 → ANC 23:41 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1594 United Flight history →	SFO 18:47	ANC 22:40	18%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 1656 United Flight history →	SFO 16:50	ANC 20:49	19%	5%	0.6%	91%
AS 212 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 19:47	ANC 23:41	24%	6%	0.7%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	1h 28m Portland	PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775	7h 02m	96%	78%
Alaska Details →	SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 09:21 → ANC 12:00AS 357	6h 57m	94%	66%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:38 → SEA 19:47AS 758	1h 28m Seattle	SEA 21:15 → ANC 23:55AS 771	7h 17m	89%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON