tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5711 at 16:25, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5711 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 16:25 ASE 19:55 25% 12% 2.3% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SFO 09:08 → LAX 10:48AA 6336 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m Los Angeles LAX 14:07 → ASE 17:23AA 6387 · flown by SkyWest 7h 15m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:45 → LAX 13:17DL 1715 3h 55m Los Angeles LAX 17:12 → ASE 20:25DL 3704 · flown by SkyWest 7h 40m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:26 → DFW 06:05AA 3281 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:30 → ASE 10:01AA 6388 · flown by SkyWest 8h 35m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 1h 36m Chicago ORD 08:52 → ASE 11:01UA 5279 · flown by SkyWest 9h 11m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506 2h 25m Los Angeles LAX 16:20 → ASE 19:31UA 5764 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 3h 50m Denver DEN 20:25 → ASE 21:26UA 5781 · flown by SkyWest 7h 43m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:55 → IAH 15:07UA 2498 1h 37m Houston IAH 16:44 → ASE 18:34UA 5917 · flown by SkyWest 8h 39m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 43m Denver DEN 11:18 → ASE 12:26UA 5769 · flown by SkyWest 6h 26m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596 59m Denver DEN 19:10 → ASE 20:11UA 5779 · flown by SkyWest 4h 51m 71% 54%
AmericanDetails → SFO 11:40 → LAX 13:20AA 6330 · flown by SkyWest 47m Los Angeles LAX 14:07 → ASE 17:23AA 6387 · flown by SkyWest 4h 43m 64% 52%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 50m Denver DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest 4h 46m 59% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON