Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 570 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–45%.

Safest bet that day DL 570 SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1448 SFO 23:00 → ATL 07:07 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 570 Delta Flight history →	SFO 06:00	ATL 13:44	7%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 640 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:50	ATL 15:32	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 702 United Flight history →	SFO 08:45	ATL 16:48	14%	4%	0.5%	86%
UA 1603 United Flight history →	SFO 21:20	ATL 05:20	20%	4%	0.5%	85%
DL 693 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:38	ATL 19:27	21%	7%	0.6%	83%
DL 531 Delta Flight history →	SFO 14:00	ATL 21:49	23%	6%	0.6%	78%
DL 724 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:05	ATL 00:02	23%	8%	0.6%	67%
DL 690 Delta Flight history →	SFO 23:59	ATL 07:40	24%	4%	0.6%	72%
DL 517 Delta Flight history →	SFO 21:56	ATL 05:37	25%	5%	0.6%	70%
DL 495 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:59	ATL 06:40	26%	4%	0.6%	71%
F9 1448 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 23:00	ATL 07:07	45%	17%	1.5%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	6h 49m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	6h 57m	90%	83%
United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	46m Houston	IAH 07:20 → ATL 10:39UA 1030	6h 54m	80%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON