Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1326 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1326 SFO 08:50 → AUS 14:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 3633 SFO 12:50 → AUS 18:20 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 12% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1326 United Flight history →	SFO 08:50	AUS 14:39	15%	5%	0.6%	80%
UA 1807 United Flight history →	SFO 23:59	AUS 05:46	15%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 381 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:49	AUS 15:36	19%	6%	0.7%	69%
UA 2332 United Flight history →	SFO 17:21	AUS 23:04	20%	9%	0.6%	87%
UA 1116 United Flight history →	SFO 13:20	AUS 19:05	23%	9%	0.6%	81%
DL 1077 Delta Flight history →	SFO 17:59	AUS 23:32	26%	10%	0.7%	47%
WN 4227 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 10:10	AUS 15:45	38%	9%	0.5%	56%
WN 3633 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 12:50	AUS 18:20	42%	11%	0.5%	12%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SFO 05:30 → PHX 07:30WN 4145	55m Phoenix	PHX 08:25 → AUS 12:45WN 4744	5h 15m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON