Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 499 at 09:17 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 499 SFO 09:17 → BNA 15:53 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 3634 SFO 22:50 → BNA 05:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 499 United Flight history →	SFO 09:17	BNA 15:53	14%	5%	0.5%	84%
UA 1815 United Flight history →	SFO 23:59	BNA 06:37	18%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 373 United Flight history →	SFO 16:10	BNA 22:46	23%	8%	0.6%	48%
WN 3634 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 22:50	BNA 05:10	35%	11%	0.6%	40%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	46m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → BNA 08:58DL 2724	6h 23m	89%	83%
Southwest Details →	SFO 05:10 → DEN 08:40WN 1424	1h 20m Denver	DEN 10:00 → BNA 13:40WN 1485	6h 30m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205	6h 18m	83%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON