Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 19–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 6027 SFO 20:59 → BOI 23:55 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest UA 267 SFO 13:54 → BOI 16:44 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6027 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:59	BOI 23:55	19%	8%	0.6%	63%
UA 5644 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:45	BOI 21:40	19%	9%	0.6%	79%
AS 3375 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 19:25	BOI 22:07	20%	8%	0.6%	77%
UA 6035 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:15	BOI 13:08	25%	12%	0.5%	56%
UA 267 United Flight history →	SFO 13:54	BOI 16:44	25%	7%	0.5%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON