Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1015 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1015 SFO 07:00 → BOS 15:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 977 SFO 12:20 → BOS 21:02 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1015 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	BOS 15:54	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 400 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:10	BOS 15:55	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
B6 434 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 06:00	BOS 14:41	10%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 2647 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	BOS 17:04	14%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 1665 United Flight history →	SFO 23:05	BOS 08:01	17%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 2001 United Flight history →	SFO 16:15	BOS 01:11	18%	7%	0.6%	88%
UA 796 United Flight history →	SFO 21:25	BOS 06:21	19%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 1372 United Flight history →	SFO 12:25	BOS 21:21	24%	9%	0.6%	79%
DL 1655 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:10	BOS 06:45	25%	7%	0.6%	69%
UA 2356 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	BOS 18:59	26%	9%	0.6%	63%
DL 860 Delta Flight history →	SFO 15:00	BOS 23:41	27%	12%	0.7%	37%
B6 1534 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 11:26	BOS 20:16	28%	14%	0.9%	66%
B6 1034 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 23:58	BOS 08:40	28%	11%	0.8%	54%
B6 734 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 15:18	BOS 23:59	29%	15%	0.9%	78%
B6 134 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 21:44	BOS 06:28	29%	11%	0.9%	65%
B6 1734 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 10:25	BOS 19:12	30%	13%	0.9%	70%
B6 1634 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 12:30	BOS 21:18	30%	14%	0.9%	66%
DL 977 Delta Flight history →	SFO 12:20	BOS 21:02	32%	13%	0.7%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	7h 46m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 10m	90%	82%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 05m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 44m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON