Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2363 at 08:33 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 2363 SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 4228 SFO 18:50 → BUR 20:15 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2363 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	BUR 09:57	12%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1367 United Flight history →	SFO 20:20	BUR 21:47	22%	12%	0.6%	85%
UA 1321 United Flight history →	SFO 17:54	BUR 19:20	22%	11%	0.6%	86%
UA 626 United Flight history →	SFO 13:50	BUR 15:17	26%	11%	0.6%	69%
UA 2115 United Flight history →	SFO 10:23	BUR 11:49	28%	9%	0.6%	81%
UA 2764 United Flight history →	SFO 16:15	BUR 17:42	28%	11%	0.6%	56%
WN 3635 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 10:20	BUR 11:40	34%	11%	4.7%	45%
WN 3638 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 15:00	BUR 16:20	37%	14%	3.4%	39%
WN 4228 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 18:50	BUR 20:15	41%	20%	2.5%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON