Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2664 at 09:33 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2664 SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2683 SFO 21:10 → BWI 05:25 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2664 United Flight history →	SFO 09:33	BWI 17:57	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	SFO 22:40	BWI 07:09	14%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 2683 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 21:10	BWI 05:25	37%	7%	0.6%	43%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357	7h 07m	94%	87%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	98%	86%
American Details →	SFO 00:26 → DFW 06:05AA 3281	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:01 → BWI 11:08AA 2747	7h 42m	89%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON