tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 562 at 12:00, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 562 United Flight history → SFO 12:00 BZN 15:21 29% 7% 0.5% 65%
AS 2062 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SFO 13:56 BZN 17:11 69% 24% 3.8% 31%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231 55m Las Vegas LAS 07:30 → BZN 10:35WN 392 4h 35m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 4h 27m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 13:17 → BZN 14:47DL 2946 7h 47m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:50 → LAX 10:34UA 1896 2h 16m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 6h 34m 99% 86%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 1h 28m Portland PDX 10:30 → BZN 13:10AS 2022 · flown by Horizon 4h 50m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 57m Denver DEN 11:32 → BZN 13:20UA 1248 7h 20m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:31 → DEN 12:22UA 2348 2h 53m Denver DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 3h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 16m 97% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:19 → LAX 11:57UA 2367 53m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 5h 05m 63% 55%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 12:27 → SEA 14:35AS 630 1h 00m Seattle SEA 15:35 → BZN 18:18AS 3498 · flown by SkyWest 4h 51m 50% 40%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 17:38 → SEA 19:47AS 758 53m Seattle SEA 20:40 → BZN 23:19AS 458 4h 41m 44% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON