tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:35, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 717 United Flight history → SFO 10:40 CLE 18:29 18% 5% 0.5% 93%worse than usual
UA 2097 United Flight history → SFO 22:35 CLE 06:34 21% 6% 0.5% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 1h 49m Chicago ORD 09:05 → CLE 11:41UA 3422 · flown by Republic 7h 51m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 3h 51m Minneapolis MSP 10:00 → CLE 12:52DL 2057 9h 17m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 04m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CLE 23:44UA 2131 9h 54m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 1h 21m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → CLE 16:38UA 1084 7h 38m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 40m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 10h 30m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 05m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 6h 36m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:37 → DTW 19:09DL 361 3h 48m Detroit DTW 22:57 → CLE 23:56DL 3646 · flown by SkyWest 9h 19m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 18:43 → LAX 20:27UA 1427 2h 06m Los Angeles LAX 22:33 → CLE 06:08 +1UA 2641 8h 25m 94% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SFO 10:17 → ORD 16:46AA 2543 48m Chicago ORD 17:34 → CLE 20:07AA 3466 · flown by Envoy 6h 50m 67% 52%
JetBlueDetails → SFO 13:15 → JFK 22:02B6 216 50m New York JFK 22:52 → CLE 00:59 +1B6 2768 8h 44m 65% 47%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 14:35 → DEN 18:10WN 3641 1h 20m Denver DEN 19:30 → CLE 00:25 +1WN 2337 6h 50m 62% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON