Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3082 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 3082 SFO 05:00 → CLT 13:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 2562 SFO 13:20 → CLT 21:44 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3082 American Flight history →	SFO 05:00	CLT 13:15	6%	2%	0.7%	98%
AA 1960 American Flight history →	SFO 08:15	CLT 16:36	15%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 2514 American Flight history →	SFO 22:05	CLT 06:11	17%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 1580 American Flight history →	SFO 23:49	CLT 08:05	19%	4%	0.7%	59%
AA 2562 American Flight history →	SFO 13:20	CLT 21:44	23%	8%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:50 → CLT 15:12UA 1633	7h 12m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	46m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → CLT 10:24DL 1827	6h 49m	89%	82%
Southwest Details →	SFO 05:50 → MDW 12:00WN 1779	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 13:00 → CLT 16:00WN 4343	7h 10m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON