tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:35, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1939 United Flight history → SFO 21:23 CMH 05:15 19% 6% 0.5% 90%
UA 1095 United Flight history → SFO 10:30 CMH 18:24 24% 7% 0.5% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:37 → DTW 19:09DL 361 3h 41m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 9h 19m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → SFO 09:49 → PHL 18:28AA 2722 3h 22m Philadelphia PHL 21:50 → CMH 23:41AA 4361 · flown by Republic 10h 52m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 3h 24m Chicago ORD 10:40 → CMH 13:17UA 2849 9h 27m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:05 → ORD 16:38UA 1954 3h 07m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 9h 19m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772 6h 27m 94% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:05 → ORD 12:41UA 2091 3h 53m Chicago ORD 16:34 → CMH 19:13UA 3570 · flown by Republic 10h 08m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 20m Houston IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 23:05 → CMH 00:44 +1DL 1501 10h 06m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SFO 10:00 → DEN 13:30WN 4284 1h 05m Denver DEN 14:35 → CMH 19:15WN 1509 6h 15m 64% 45%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 15:45 → LAS 17:25WN 1288 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 18:30 → CMH 01:30 +1WN 873 6h 45m 60% 34%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 14:00 → SAN 15:40WN 4242 50m San Diego SAN 16:30 → CMH 23:55WN 4808 6h 55m 52% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON