Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 14:35, is the safest bet: 35% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1859 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 15:10	DAL 20:50	35%	10%	0.6%	17%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 07:50 → DAL 12:40WN 1317	5h 40m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	SFO 05:10 → DEN 08:40WN 1424	1h 25m Denver	DEN 10:05 → DAL 13:10WN 1518	6h 00m	96%	83%
Southwest Details →	SFO 05:30 → PHX 07:30WN 4145	3h 25m Phoenix	PHX 10:55 → DAL 15:20WN 3255	7h 50m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	9h 54m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	8h 47m	94%	72%
Southwest Details →	SFO 12:50 → AUS 18:20WN 3633	3h 35m Austin	AUS 21:55 → DAL 23:05WN 280	8h 15m	99%	71%
Southwest Details →	SFO 10:10 → AUS 15:45WN 4227	3h 20m Austin	AUS 19:05 → DAL 20:10WN 2134	8h 00m	96%	68%
Southwest Details →	SFO 08:55 → SAN 10:35WN 4239	3h 20m San Diego	SAN 13:55 → DAL 19:05WN 4097	8h 10m	100%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SFO 12:30 → SAN 14:10WN 3525	1h 05m San Diego	SAN 15:15 → DAL 20:25WN 3582	5h 55m	63%	43%
Southwest Details →	SFO 11:00 → SAN 12:40WN 3496	1h 15m San Diego	SAN 13:55 → DAL 19:05WN 4097	6h 05m	58%	39%
Southwest Details →	SFO 14:35 → DEN 18:10WN 3641	55m Denver	DEN 19:05 → DAL 22:05WN 1522	5h 30m	54%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON