Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1424 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 1424 SFO 05:10 → DEN 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3641 SFO 14:35 → DEN 18:10 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 10% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1424 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 05:10	DEN 08:40	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 1479 United Flight history →	SFO 05:00	DEN 08:35	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 1758 United Flight history →	SFO 06:15	DEN 09:59	6%	1%	0.6%	81%
F9 1230 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 06:00	DEN 09:46	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 2348 United Flight history →	SFO 08:31	DEN 12:22	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 2019 United Flight history →	SFO 19:56	DEN 23:43	15%	5%	0.5%	88%
UA 2436 United Flight history →	SFO 18:56	DEN 22:44	17%	6%	0.5%	88%
UA 301 United Flight history →	SFO 21:00	DEN 00:47	19%	6%	0.5%	86%
UA 1214 United Flight history →	SFO 17:30	DEN 21:28	19%	6%	0.5%	81%
UA 1430 United Flight history →	SFO 16:10	DEN 20:01	24%	7%	0.5%	79%
UA 540 United Flight history →	SFO 12:43	DEN 16:35	24%	7%	0.5%	77%
UA 1604 United Flight history →	SFO 10:40	DEN 14:23	27%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 1596 United Flight history →	SFO 14:20	DEN 18:11	29%	7%	0.5%	71%
WN 3642 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 19:20	DEN 23:00	36%	10%	0.6%	50%
WN 4284 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 10:00	DEN 13:30	37%	7%	0.6%	12%
F9 3440 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 21:39	DEN 01:29	37%	14%	0.7%	61%
WN 3641 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 14:35	DEN 18:10	45%	9%	0.6%	10%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON