Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1198 at 05:29 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1198 SFO 05:29 → DFW 11:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2325 SFO 15:38 → DFW 21:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1198 American Flight history →	SFO 05:29	DFW 11:15	4%	2%	1.2%	93%
AA 2305 American Flight history →	SFO 06:45	DFW 12:29	6%	3%	1.2%	83%
AA 3281 American Flight history →	SFO 00:26	DFW 06:05	10%	3%	1.3%	51%
AA 2904 American Flight history →	SFO 08:00	DFW 13:40	12%	4%	1.1%	86%
UA 1062 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	DFW 14:25	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
F9 4000 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 00:29	DFW 06:10	17%	7%	3.1%	61%
UA 2478 United Flight history →	SFO 18:50	DFW 00:37	19%	6%	0.6%	60%
AA 2228 American Flight history →	SFO 23:20	DFW 04:59	22%	7%	1.6%	27%
AA 1711 American Flight history →	SFO 17:01	DFW 22:47	24%	9%	1.4%	51%
AA 3258 American Flight history →	SFO 12:30	DFW 18:26	25%	9%	1.1%	73%
AA 1849 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	DFW 17:14	26%	10%	1.2%	45%
UA 2842 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	DFW 16:08	28%	7%	0.6%	61%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	SFO 14:03	DFW 19:59	29%	9%	1.1%	50%
AA 2325 American Flight history →	SFO 15:38	DFW 21:25	29%	9%	1.1%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON