Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 22–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1508 SFO 21:15 → EUG 22:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest UA 5604 SFO 16:10 → EUG 17:56 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1508 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	EUG 22:59	22%	8%	0.6%	63%
UA 790 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	EUG 12:01	25%	8%	0.6%	81%
UA 5604 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:10	EUG 17:56	29%	14%	1.4%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON