Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 419 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 419 SFO 06:10 → EWR 15:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 1597 SFO 12:35 → EWR 21:25 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 419 United Flight history →	SFO 06:10	EWR 15:00	6%	2%	0.9%	91%
UA 1149 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	EWR 15:49	7%	2%	0.9%	91%
UA 435 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	EWR 16:53	17%	5%	0.9%	83%
UA 698 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	EWR 05:51	22%	6%	1.0%	84%
UA 2248 United Flight history →	SFO 15:00	EWR 23:50	24%	9%	0.8%	67%
UA 274 United Flight history →	SFO 11:15	EWR 20:10	24%	11%	0.8%	76%
UA 1141 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	EWR 07:00	24%	6%	1.0%	83%
UA 2626 United Flight history →	SFO 16:20	EWR 01:10	26%	9%	0.9%	70%
UA 2416 United Flight history →	SFO 23:59	EWR 08:22	27%	5%	1.1%	75%
UA 366 United Flight history →	SFO 13:45	EWR 22:26	29%	10%	0.8%	57%
UA 713 United Flight history →	SFO 10:20	EWR 19:03	30%	10%	0.8%	75%
UA 1597 United Flight history →	SFO 12:35	EWR 21:25	32%	11%	0.8%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 14m	94%	85%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 27m Denver	DEN 10:02 → EWR 16:00UA 1423	8h 00m	98%	80%
United Details →	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	1h 15m Denver	DEN 23:59 → EWR 05:40 +1UA 1745	7h 44m	87%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON