Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5942 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 5942 SFO 08:20 → FAT 09:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 5652 SFO 16:10 → FAT 17:28 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5942 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:20	FAT 09:39	15%	10%	0.9%	86%
UA 5271 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:56	FAT 22:18	22%	14%	0.9%	62%
UA 5652 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:10	FAT 17:28	30%	15%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON