Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5597 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:30	FCA 19:57	25%	10%	0.7%	55%
UA 5577 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:00	FCA 15:30	28%	12%	0.6%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kalispell on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kalispell is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → FCA 12:43DL 3804 · flown by SkyWest	5h 53m	99%	90%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	2h 04m Portland	PDX 11:06 → FCA 13:30AS 2044 · flown by Horizon	5h 10m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	2h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:40 → FCA 17:29DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest	6h 34m	98%	87%
American Details →	SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest	1h 43m Phoenix	PHX 09:44 → FCA 13:49AA 3852 · flown by Envoy	6h 59m	98%	85%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 40m Denver	DEN 11:15 → FCA 13:30UA 1547	7h 30m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	59m Minneapolis	MSP 12:35 → FCA 14:32DL 2575	7h 32m	96%	82%
United Details →	SFO 06:15 → DEN 09:59UA 1758	3h 54m Denver	DEN 13:53 → FCA 16:11UA 2246	8h 56m	99%	81%
American Details →	SFO 05:29 → DFW 11:15AA 1198	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:24 → FCA 14:57AA 1842	8h 28m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656	1h 06m Seattle	SEA 13:33 → FCA 15:54AS 2105 · flown by Horizon	4h 36m	54%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON