Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1230 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1230 SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest B6 378 SFO 11:00 → FLL 19:45 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1230 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	FLL 05:59	20%	6%	1.3%	75%
B6 278 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 22:40	FLL 07:22	32%	15%	1.8%	79%worse than usual
B6 378 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 11:00	FLL 19:45	35%	11%	1.1%	77%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	1h 01m Houston	IAH 07:35 → FLL 11:22UA 2261	7h 37m	91%	79%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 12m Denver	DEN 09:47 → FLL 15:47UA 2188	7h 47m	98%	79%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168	1h 11m Houston	IAH 12:06 → FLL 15:53UA 1706	7h 53m	96%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON