Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 6014 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 6014 SFO 08:10 → GEG 10:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 3075 SFO 12:29 → GEG 14:36 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6014 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:10	GEG 10:27	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 5693 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:45	GEG 23:04	18%	9%	0.6%	70%
UA 4753 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:10	GEG 18:26	29%	9%	0.6%	63%
AS 3075 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:29	GEG 14:36	37%	9%	0.6%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON