Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1581 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1581 SFO 07:05 → HNL 09:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 811 SFO 08:30 → HNL 11:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1581 United Flight history →	SFO 07:05	HNL 09:40	8%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 1175 United Flight history →	SFO 09:20	HNL 11:43	14%	4%	0.6%	93%
UA 638 United Flight history →	SFO 19:00	HNL 21:43	16%	5%	0.5%	88%
UA 1509 United Flight history →	SFO 16:45	HNL 19:25	20%	6%	0.5%	85%
UA 300 United Flight history →	SFO 13:55	HNL 16:18	21%	7%	0.6%	84%
UA 1260 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	HNL 14:35	23%	7%	0.6%	72%
AS 843 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 19:42	HNL 22:11	24%	7%	1.4%	76%
UA 2380 United Flight history →	SFO 10:45	HNL 13:20	25%	7%	0.6%	78%
AS 811 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 08:30	HNL 11:10	28%	5%	1.9%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:00 → KOA 09:34AS 693	1h 17m Kailua/Kona	KOA 10:51 → HNL 11:40AS 1057	7h 40m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:03 → LIH 09:43AS 789	1h 31m Lihue	LIH 11:14 → HNL 11:53AS 1054	7h 50m	92%	63%
Alaska Details →	SFO 09:23 → OGG 11:47AS 979	1h 16m Kahului	OGG 13:03 → HNL 13:46AS 1125	7h 23m	88%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON