tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 07:45 → HOU 12:55WN 981 5h 55m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:10 → DEN 08:40WN 1424 1h 35m Denver DEN 10:15 → HOU 13:55WN 1543 6h 45m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:26 → DFW 06:05AA 3281 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → HOU 09:48AA 5071 · flown by PSA 7h 22m 97% 78%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:50 → MDW 12:00WN 1779 3h 00m Chicago MDW 15:00 → HOU 17:35WN 1124 9h 45m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 8h 22m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:29 → DFW 11:15AA 1198 3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest 8h 15m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:30 → PHX 07:30WN 4145 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 10:25 → HOU 15:05WN 3067 7h 35m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59AA 2387 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 7h 53m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SFO 15:45 → LAS 17:25WN 1288 1h 25m Las Vegas LAS 18:50 → HOU 23:55WN 4498 6h 10m 67% 42%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 21:05 → LAX 22:40WN 3648 1h 00m Los Angeles LAX 23:40 → HOU 05:00 +1WN 2402 5h 55m 55% 39%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 18:10 → SAN 19:45WN 4681 55m San Diego SAN 20:40 → HOU 01:55 +1WN 4675 5h 45m 49% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON