Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1849 SFO 08:10 → IAD 16:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 336 SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1849 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	IAD 16:25	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1083 United Flight history →	SFO 23:05	IAD 07:30	15%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 2837 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	IAD 06:58	19%	5%	0.6%	67%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	19%	6%	0.6%	87%
UA 357 United Flight history →	SFO 21:30	IAD 05:53	19%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	21%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	22%	6%	0.6%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 07:17 → IAD 10:46DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	7h 11m	95%	86%
United Details →	SFO 06:00 → LAS 07:46UA 582	1h 02m Las Vegas	LAS 08:48 → IAD 16:24UA 1140	7h 24m	96%	85%
United Details →	SFO 10:40 → CLE 18:29UA 717	1h 26m Cleveland	CLE 19:55 → IAD 21:19UA 3433 · flown by Republic	7h 39m	91%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON