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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2168 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2168 SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1387 SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2168 United Flight history → SFO 05:00 IAH 10:55 5% 2% 0.7% 97%
UA 686 United Flight history → SFO 07:05 IAH 13:11 5% 2% 0.7% 95%
UA 604 United Flight history → SFO 00:45 IAH 06:34 9% 3% 0.6% 83%
UA 2498 United Flight history → SFO 08:55 IAH 15:07 11% 3% 0.7% 89%
UA 505 United Flight history → SFO 23:59 IAH 06:04 15% 4% 0.7% 82%
UA 1702 United Flight history → SFO 18:54 IAH 00:59 15% 5% 0.6% 83%
UA 2305 United Flight history → SFO 16:40 IAH 22:52 18% 6% 0.6% 85%
UA 2002 United Flight history → SFO 14:28 IAH 20:40 20% 7% 0.6% 71%
UA 1259 United Flight history → SFO 10:50 IAH 16:52 22% 6% 0.7% 61%
UA 1387 United Flight history → SFO 12:15 IAH 18:27 24% 7% 0.7% 78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 47m Salt Lake City SLC 09:27 → IAH 13:31DL 2502 5h 41m 92% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON