tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2477 United Flight history → SFO 23:05 IND 06:38 20% 6% 0.5% 64%
UA 1902 United Flight history → SFO 11:29 IND 18:57 21% 8% 0.6% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 2h 41m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456 7h 53m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35AA 2161 3h 44m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 11h 45m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 2h 51m Detroit DTW 16:00 → IND 17:18DL 5826 · flown by Republic 8h 38m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231 2h 15m Las Vegas LAS 08:50 → IND 15:30WN 3258 7h 30m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 6h 33m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:43 → IND 14:16UA 1522 6h 16m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:05 → ORD 16:38UA 1954 3h 07m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 9h 00m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 00m Houston IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687 7h 25m 95% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:20 → EWR 19:03UA 713 50m Newark EWR 19:53 → IND 22:15UA 3705 · flown by Republic 8h 55m 58% 44%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 11:00 → SAN 12:40WN 3496 55m San Diego SAN 13:35 → IND 20:35WN 3505 6h 35m 58% 38%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 14:35 → DEN 18:10WN 3641 1h 05m Denver DEN 19:15 → IND 23:50WN 1211 6h 15m 55% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON