tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3468 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 09:10 JAC 12:31 16% 5% 1.3% 82%
UA 1958 United Flight history → SFO 18:10 JAC 21:30 17% 4% 0.6% 95%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 25m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 3h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 15:55 → JAC 17:00DL 417 6h 05m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 6h 46m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 2h 49m Los Angeles LAX 10:28 → JAC 13:48UA 2110 6h 48m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:41AA 6294 · flown by SkyWest 1h 45m Los Angeles LAX 09:26 → JAC 12:50AA 5012 · flown by SkyWest 5h 50m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:31 → DEN 12:22UA 2348 1h 33m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 5h 54m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 1h 57m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 6h 13m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:25 → JAC 20:58UA 1306 7h 15m 95% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SFO 10:09 → LAX 11:49AA 6428 · flown by SkyWest 48m Los Angeles LAX 12:37 → JAC 16:01AA 5011 · flown by SkyWest 4h 52m 61% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON