Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 693 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day AS 693 SFO 07:00 → KOA 09:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 694 SFO 10:10 → KOA 12:37 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 693 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:00	KOA 09:34	7%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 1721 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	KOA 10:40	12%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 731 United Flight history →	SFO 19:08	KOA 21:45	15%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1723 United Flight history →	SFO 16:55	KOA 19:31	21%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 694 United Flight history →	SFO 10:10	KOA 12:37	21%	6%	0.5%	88%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 09:23 → OGG 11:47AS 979	1h 13m Kahului	OGG 13:00 → KOA 13:36AS 1030	7h 13m	88%	67%
Alaska Details →	SFO 08:30 → HNL 11:10AS 811	1h 15m Honolulu	HNL 12:25 → KOA 13:13AS 1098	7h 43m	87%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON