tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 38 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2222 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 2222 SFO 06:05 → LAX 07:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AS 751 SFO 19:46 → LAX 21:06 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 2222 Southwest Flight history → SFO 06:05 LAX 07:35 3% 1% 0.6% 100%
UA 2127 United Flight history → SFO 06:00 LAX 07:39 4% 2% 0.6% 96%
AA 6294 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 06:00 LAX 07:41 7% 3% 0.7% 89%
AS 1620 Alaska Flight history → SFO 06:00 LAX 07:32 7% 2% 0.7% 94%
DL 1598 Delta Flight history → SFO 07:00 LAX 08:30 8% 3% 0.8% 94%
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → SFO 09:20 LAX 10:53 12% 5% 0.8% 91%
UA 1896 United Flight history → SFO 08:50 LAX 10:34 12% 3% 0.6% 85%
WN 4957 Southwest Flight history → SFO 09:25 LAX 11:05 16% 8% 0.6% 41%
AA 6336 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 09:08 LAX 10:48 16% 6% 0.8% 86%
AS 1329 Alaska Flight history → SFO 08:30 LAX 10:07 23% 4% 0.7% 64%
UA 2610 United Flight history → SFO 13:55 LAX 15:35 23% 7% 0.5% 78%
DL 1715 Delta Flight history → SFO 11:45 LAX 13:17 24% 11% 0.8% 60%
UA 1427 United Flight history → SFO 18:43 LAX 20:27 24% 9% 0.5% 83%
UA 2179 United Flight history → SFO 22:37 LAX 00:19 24% 9% 0.5% 72%
UA 298 United Flight history → SFO 19:46 LAX 21:30 25% 9% 0.5% 69%
UA 2850 United Flight history → SFO 20:55 LAX 22:37 26% 9% 0.5% 65%
UA 1754 United Flight history → SFO 16:25 LAX 18:05 26% 9% 0.5% 73%
UA 2367 United Flight history → SFO 10:19 LAX 11:57 27% 7% 0.6% 78%
DL 2725 Delta Flight history → SFO 14:30 LAX 15:56 27% 10% 0.8% 49%
UA 1506 United Flight history → SFO 12:15 LAX 13:55 27% 8% 0.6% 71%
DL 2267 Delta Flight history → SFO 16:39 LAX 18:13 27% 12% 0.8% 53%
DL 1559 Delta Flight history → SFO 20:05 LAX 21:40 28% 12% 0.8% 67%
DL 1629 Delta Flight history → SFO 18:43 LAX 20:10 28% 12% 0.8% 64%
AA 6330 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 11:40 LAX 13:20 28% 12% 0.7% 52%
AA 6221 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 16:04 LAX 17:45 28% 13% 0.7% 47%
AA 6188 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:39 LAX 15:19 29% 12% 0.7% 44%
AA 2567 American Flight history → SFO 20:11 LAX 21:49 30% 12% 0.6% 60%
AA 6428 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 10:09 LAX 11:49 31% 13% 0.7% 59%
AS 3037 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 21:43 LAX 23:21 32% 15% 0.8% 27%
AS 1523 Alaska Flight history → SFO 16:30 LAX 18:06 34% 12% 0.7% 58%
AS 1604 Alaska Flight history → SFO 13:51 LAX 15:22 35% 8% 0.7% 71%
WN 3645 Southwest Flight history → SFO 17:40 LAX 19:20 36% 15% 0.5% 35%
AS 1602 Alaska Flight history → SFO 10:15 LAX 11:44 36% 8% 0.7% 27%
WN 278 Southwest Flight history → SFO 14:15 LAX 15:45 38% 11% 0.6% 20%
F9 2858 Frontier Flight history → SFO 20:23 LAX 21:59 39% 18% 1.0% 69%
WN 4235 Southwest Flight history → SFO 12:00 LAX 13:30 41% 11% 0.6% 8%
WN 3648 Southwest Flight history → SFO 21:05 LAX 22:40 45% 17% 0.5% 21%
AS 751 Alaska Flight history → SFO 19:46 LAX 21:06 46% 12% 0.6% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON