tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:35, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764 10h 10m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 2h 47m Chicago ORD 10:03 → LGA 13:26UA 669 9h 36m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 14m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 46m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 49m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 1h 31m Houston IAH 08:05 → LGA 12:40UA 2133 8h 55m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:26 → DFW 06:05AA 3281 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → LGA 13:00AA 1056 9h 34m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:37 → DTW 19:09DL 361 2h 41m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 9h 03m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 9h 37m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:20 → BOS 21:02DL 977 58m Boston BOS 22:00 → LGA 23:23DL 5840 · flown by Republic 8h 03m 66% 51%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 10m Chicago ORD 19:45 → LGA 23:15UA 1655 8h 15m 72% 50%
AmericanDetails → SFO 12:30 → DFW 18:26AA 3258 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 8h 15m 58% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON