tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231 1h 20m Las Vegas LAS 07:55 → LGB 09:05WN 276 4h 05m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116 6h 09m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:30 → PHX 07:30WN 4145 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 08:35 → LGB 09:55WN 165 4h 25m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 2h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → LGB 16:06DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 96% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 13:35 → PHX 15:45WN 4237 3h 30m Phoenix PHX 19:15 → LGB 20:35WN 4352 7h 00m 100% 65%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 09:45 → LAS 11:20WN 4249 3h 10m Las Vegas LAS 14:30 → LGB 15:40WN 3061 5h 55m 99% 62%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 15:45 → LAS 17:25WN 1288 2h 35m Las Vegas LAS 20:00 → LGB 21:10WN 2031 5h 25m 95% 61%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 13:20 → LAS 15:00WN 3644 3h 05m Las Vegas LAS 18:05 → LGB 19:15WN 1322 5h 55m 98% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SFO 13:35 → PHX 15:45WN 4237 55m Phoenix PHX 16:40 → LGB 17:55WN 149 4h 20m 55% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON