Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 789 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day AS 789 SFO 07:03 → LIH 09:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1298 SFO 10:36 → LIH 13:16 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 789 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:03	LIH 09:43	8%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 1384 United Flight history →	SFO 09:05	LIH 11:50	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1684 United Flight history →	SFO 16:55	LIH 19:42	17%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 1298 United Flight history →	SFO 10:36	LIH 13:16	20%	6%	0.6%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 08:30 → HNL 11:10AS 811	2h 05m Honolulu	HNL 13:15 → LIH 13:58AS 1073	8h 28m	95%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON