tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1515 United Flight history → SFO 16:45 MCI 22:31 25% 10% 0.6% 50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:26 → DFW 06:05AA 3281 3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:00 → MCI 11:44AA 3661 · flown by Envoy 9h 18m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 1h 26m Houston IAH 08:00 → MCI 10:03UA 2266 7h 18m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 04m Denver DEN 09:39 → MCI 12:26UA 2159 5h 26m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31AA 2614 2h 27m Chicago ORD 14:58 → MCI 16:49AA 4745 · flown by Republic 8h 45m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 40m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 9h 47m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 2h 31m Los Angeles LAX 10:10 → MCI 15:45UA 5426 · flown by SkyWest 7h 45m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 1h 24m Chicago ORD 08:40 → MCI 10:29UA 1484 7h 39m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 7h 14m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 50m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → MCI 00:13 +1DL 2993 5h 06m 57% 46%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 12:00 → LAX 13:30WN 4235 1h 00m Los Angeles LAX 14:30 → MCI 19:40WN 2567 5h 40m 59% 38%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656 1h 03m Seattle SEA 13:30 → MCI 19:01AS 497 6h 43m 52% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON