Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2071 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2071 SFO 07:05 → MCO 15:39 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 520 SFO 14:00 → MCO 22:36 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2071 United Flight history →	SFO 07:05	MCO 15:39	13%	4%	17.2%	90%
UA 1267 United Flight history →	SFO 23:59	MCO 08:34	20%	4%	3.8%	76%
UA 520 United Flight history →	SFO 14:00	MCO 22:36	26%	7%	17.2%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 19:46 → LAX 21:30UA 298	1h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 23:04 → MCO 07:03 +1UA 1730	8h 17m	100%	79%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 35m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	98%	68%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225	8h 04m	97%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON