Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 369 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 369 SFO 07:20 → MIA 16:06 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2565 SFO 11:24 → MIA 20:05 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 369 American Flight history →	SFO 07:20	MIA 16:06	15%	5%	1.4%	89%
AA 2799 American Flight history →	SFO 23:49	MIA 08:35	21%	6%	1.1%	72%
UA 1769 United Flight history →	SFO 22:54	MIA 07:39	21%	5%	0.8%	86%
UA 2029 United Flight history →	SFO 08:40	MIA 17:29	21%	7%	0.9%	73%
AA 1545 American Flight history →	SFO 21:49	MIA 06:34	23%	8%	1.0%	56%
AA 2565 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	MIA 20:05	32%	12%	1.4%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	51m Houston	IAH 07:25 → MIA 11:12UA 1966	7h 27m	84%	72%
American Details →	SFO 00:26 → DFW 06:05AA 3281	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290	7h 45m	90%	70%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168	1h 05m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	7h 47m	96%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON