tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5738 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:50 MRY 14:55 30% 15% 0.7% 55%
UA 5479 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 10:05 MRY 11:10 31% 16% 0.7% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656 2h 53m Seattle SEA 15:20 → MRY 17:42AS 2129 · flown by Horizon 7h 24m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → MRY 12:05AA 3720 · flown by Envoy 6h 15m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 2h 42m Los Angeles LAX 10:21 → MRY 11:42UA 5241 · flown by SkyWest 5h 42m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:55 → LAX 15:35UA 2610 3h 47m Los Angeles LAX 19:22 → MRY 20:36UA 1363 6h 41m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:15 → MRY 13:10UA 5438 · flown by SkyWest 8h 10m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → SFO 08:15 → PHX 10:22AA 2414 3h 21m Phoenix PHX 13:43 → MRY 15:38AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest 7h 23m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:55 → SAN 09:35AS 1557 3h 18m San Diego SAN 12:53 → MRY 14:28AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 100% 69%
AmericanDetails → SFO 12:18 → PHX 14:29AA 2548 2h 07m Phoenix PHX 16:36 → MRY 18:28AA 2884 6h 10m 96% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON