Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5422 at 12:15, with a 41% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5422 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:15	MSO 15:38	41%	15%	0.5%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 45m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	3h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	99%	90%
United Details →	SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → MSO 11:32UA 1180	9h 42m	95%	84%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 40m Denver	DEN 11:15 → MSO 13:19UA 1342	7h 19m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362	7h 38m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → MSO 00:28 +1DL 1723	6h 21m	97%	80%
United Details →	SFO 08:31 → DEN 12:22UA 2348	1h 38m Denver	DEN 14:00 → MSO 16:20UA 4783 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	SFO 14:20 → SEA 16:31AS 790	3h 59m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon	7h 35m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SFO 15:27 → MSP 21:00DL 2159	52m Minneapolis	MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610	7h 17m	73%	57%
Alaska Details →	SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656	1h 11m Seattle	SEA 13:38 → MSO 16:09AS 697	4h 51m	56%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON