Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2178 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21%.

Safest bet that day DL 2178 SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2078 SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2178 Delta Flight history →	SFO 06:00	MSP 11:36	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
DL 2789 Delta Flight history →	SFO 00:35	MSP 06:09	6%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 283 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	MSP 14:24	11%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 648 United Flight history →	SFO 16:10	MSP 21:57	21%	8%	0.6%	32%
DL 756 Delta Flight history →	SFO 18:25	MSP 23:56	21%	7%	0.6%	75%
DL 2159 Delta Flight history →	SFO 15:27	MSP 21:00	22%	8%	0.6%	76%
DL 2078 Delta Flight history →	SFO 12:42	MSP 18:19	27%	7%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON