tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 246 United Flight history → SFO 12:08 MSY 18:33 28% 9% 0.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231 1h 40m Las Vegas LAS 08:15 → MSY 13:50WN 2280 6h 50m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 6h 39m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:05 → ORD 12:41UA 2091 1h 24m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic 8h 44m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 11m Houston IAH 09:45 → MSY 11:01UA 575 8h 16m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 7h 25m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 3h 09m Chicago ORD 10:25 → MSY 12:55UA 1850 10h 05m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:29 → DFW 11:15AA 1198 1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:38 → MSY 14:12AA 3721 · flown by Envoy 6h 43m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 00m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 14m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 51m Dulles IAD 20:02 → MSY 21:49UA 2042 8h 59m 70% 56%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 10:00 → DEN 13:30WN 4284 1h 20m Denver DEN 14:50 → MSY 18:25WN 1643 6h 25m 71% 52%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 15:10 → DAL 20:50WN 1859 1h 10m Dallas DAL 22:00 → MSY 23:30WN 1370 6h 20m 72% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON