tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Omaha on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1763 United Flight history → SFO 18:45 OMA 00:19 19% 8% 0.5% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 2h 41m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 7h 37m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 55m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → OMA 12:56DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest 5h 06m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest 8h 06m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31AA 2614 3h 35m Chicago ORD 16:06 → OMA 17:56AA 4724 · flown by Republic 9h 52m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 07:45 → OMA 12:25WN 2294 5h 25m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 34m Denver DEN 10:09 → OMA 12:42UA 361 5h 42m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 2h 51m Detroit DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:41AA 6294 · flown by SkyWest 2h 08m Los Angeles LAX 09:49 → OMA 15:13AA 6278 · flown by SkyWest 7h 13m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SFO 13:20 → LAS 15:00WN 3644 55m Las Vegas LAS 15:55 → OMA 20:40WN 4338 5h 20m 60% 41%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 14:35 → DEN 18:10WN 3641 1h 10m Denver DEN 19:20 → OMA 21:55WN 1659 5h 20m 56% 39%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:50 → SEA 18:00AS 1340 47m Seattle SEA 18:47 → OMA 23:59AS 556 6h 09m 48% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON