Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2614 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2614 SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2317 SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2614 American Flight history →	SFO 06:04	ORD 12:31	6%	2%	0.9%	92%
UA 2091 United Flight history →	SFO 06:05	ORD 12:41	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
UA 1850 United Flight history →	SFO 00:50	ORD 07:16	11%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 1568 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	ORD 14:50	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 359 American Flight history →	SFO 08:00	ORD 14:27	15%	5%	0.8%	79%
UA 368 United Flight history →	SFO 23:30	ORD 05:57	17%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 1375 United Flight history →	SFO 18:34	ORD 00:59	21%	6%	0.6%	58%
UA 2278 United Flight history →	SFO 22:38	ORD 05:01	22%	5%	0.6%	81%
AA 2554 American Flight history →	SFO 23:30	ORD 05:45	22%	6%	0.8%	73%
UA 1482 United Flight history →	SFO 16:21	ORD 22:59	24%	6%	0.6%	81%
AA 2537 American Flight history →	SFO 16:20	ORD 23:00	24%	10%	0.8%	69%
AA 2543 American Flight history →	SFO 10:17	ORD 16:46	25%	10%	0.8%	71%
UA 1954 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	ORD 16:38	26%	6%	0.6%	72%
UA 2480 United Flight history →	SFO 15:10	ORD 21:38	27%	6%	0.6%	53%
UA 1777 United Flight history →	SFO 14:29	ORD 21:03	29%	7%	0.6%	46%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	SFO 14:36	ORD 21:27	31%	10%	0.8%	37%
UA 2317 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	ORD 18:35	32%	7%	0.6%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 15m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ORD 08:30DL 1544	5h 55m	90%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON