tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 2249 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SFO 08:20 PAE 10:25 16% 4% 0.0% 84%
AS 2083 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SFO 20:07 PAE 22:12 54% 28% 4.0% 46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 1h 50m Portland PDX 10:52 → PAE 11:53AS 2126 · flown by Horizon 4h 33m 97% 86%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 13:21 → SAN 15:05AS 3482 · flown by SkyWest 3h 55m San Diego SAN 19:00 → PAE 22:00AS 2189 · flown by Horizon 8h 39m 100% 67%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:52 → LAS 17:33AS 776 2h 17m Las Vegas LAS 19:50 → PAE 22:30AS 366 6h 38m 91% 67%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:48 → SNA 17:26AS 3494 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Santa Ana SNA 18:56 → PAE 21:40AS 2116 · flown by Horizon 5h 52m 86% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 16:24 → SAN 18:09AS 3337 · flown by SkyWest 51m San Diego SAN 19:00 → PAE 22:00AS 2189 · flown by Horizon 5h 36m 52% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON