tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:38, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching West Palm Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (West Palm Beach is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065 10h 13m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → PBI 20:51DL 1058 10h 01m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:26 → DFW 06:05AA 3281 3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → PBI 13:21AA 2276 9h 55m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 30m Houston IAH 12:25 → PBI 15:56UA 1345 7h 56m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 3h 34m Chicago ORD 10:50 → PBI 14:51UA 2342 11h 01m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:48 → PHL 09:20AA 2695 3h 04m Philadelphia PHL 12:24 → PBI 15:13AA 2280 11h 25m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → PBI 18:36DL 959 9h 36m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:15 → EWR 16:53UA 435 3h 26m Newark EWR 20:19 → PBI 23:28UA 2650 12h 13m 97% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON