Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2265 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2265 SFO 08:22 → PDX 10:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 235 SFO 12:08 → PDX 13:50 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2265 United Flight history →	SFO 08:22	PDX 10:20	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
AS 1410 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	PDX 09:02	9%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 2413 United Flight history →	SFO 20:50	PDX 22:48	16%	8%	0.6%	56%
UA 2384 United Flight history →	SFO 22:52	PDX 00:50	18%	8%	0.6%	75%
UA 2262 United Flight history →	SFO 18:56	PDX 20:54	20%	8%	0.6%	82%
UA 1301 United Flight history →	SFO 10:15	PDX 12:08	21%	7%	0.6%	57%
AS 525 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 18:46	PDX 20:31	32%	6%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
AS 1302 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:02	PDX 16:47	33%	6%	0.7%	76%
AS 235 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 12:08	PDX 13:50	40%	6%	0.7%	62%
AS 2023 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 22:08	PDX 23:52	46%	31%	6.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON