Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2161 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 2161 SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2619 SFO 16:42 → PHL 01:23 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2161 American Flight history →	SFO 06:00	PHL 14:35	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 2695 American Flight history →	SFO 00:48	PHL 09:20	12%	2%	0.8%	73%
UA 2431 United Flight history →	SFO 08:38	PHL 17:17	13%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2854 United Flight history →	SFO 23:20	PHL 07:50	14%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 2722 American Flight history →	SFO 09:49	PHL 18:28	18%	6%	0.7%	71%
AA 2941 American Flight history →	SFO 08:18	PHL 16:49	20%	4%	0.7%	75%
AA 2045 American Flight history →	SFO 21:10	PHL 05:43	20%	5%	0.8%	77%
UA 2619 United Flight history →	SFO 16:42	PHL 01:23	21%	6%	0.6%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	7h 09m	94%	88%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 12m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772	1h 51m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	8h 03m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON