Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4145 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 4145 SFO 05:30 → PHX 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3651 SFO 18:45 → PHX 21:05 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4145 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 05:30	PHX 07:30	3%	1%	0.6%	94%
AA 6404 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 05:50	PHX 08:01	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2374 United Flight history →	SFO 08:04	PHX 10:10	13%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 2414 American Flight history →	SFO 08:15	PHX 10:22	15%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 2347 United Flight history →	SFO 19:25	PHX 21:39	21%	8%	0.7%	83%
UA 500 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	PHX 12:14	22%	7%	0.6%	72%
UA 574 United Flight history →	SFO 16:25	PHX 18:39	26%	9%	0.6%	73%
AA 2544 American Flight history →	SFO 18:55	PHX 21:00	30%	13%	0.8%	57%
AA 1321 American Flight history →	SFO 15:52	PHX 18:04	33%	13%	0.7%	50%
AA 2548 American Flight history →	SFO 12:18	PHX 14:29	33%	12%	0.6%	52%
WN 4237 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 13:35	PHX 15:45	42%	12%	0.6%	18%
F9 2638 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 19:08	PHX 21:18	43%	18%	2.4%	60%
WN 3651 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 18:45	PHX 21:05	44%	15%	0.6%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON