Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:35, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2836 United Flight history →	SFO 08:23	PIT 16:27	8%	3%	0.5%	90%
UA 2117 United Flight history →	SFO 21:17	PIT 05:19	15%	5%	0.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845	6h 58m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	SFO 07:00 → JFK 15:43DL 405	3h 46m New York	JFK 19:29 → PIT 21:39DL 5795 · flown by Republic	11h 39m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188	7h 40m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	SFO 05:50 → MDW 12:00WN 1779	1h 35m Chicago	MDW 13:35 → PIT 16:00WN 2866	7h 10m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	3h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 15:25 → PIT 18:40DL 3709 · flown by SkyWest	9h 40m	99%	85%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 30m Denver	DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308	7h 16m	98%	85%
United Details →	SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336	3h 19m Dulles	IAD 22:30 → PIT 23:36UA 3540 · flown by Republic	9h 46m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351	10h 12m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SFO 14:19 → DTW 21:51DL 717	59m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → PIT 00:07 +1DL 5369 · flown by Endeavor	6h 47m	72%	45%
American Details →	SFO 11:24 → MIA 20:05AA 2565	54m Miami	MIA 20:59 → PIT 23:48AA 1702	9h 24m	65%	42%
Southwest Details →	SFO 13:35 → PHX 15:45WN 4237	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 16:55 → PIT 23:55WN 4804	7h 20m	67%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON