Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 4717 at 09:15, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4717 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 09:15	PSC 11:27	11%	7%	0.5%	100%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	3h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 12:24 → PSC 13:09DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	7h 19m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	3h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	6h 43m	98%	88%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:38 → SEA 19:47AS 758	2h 57m Seattle	SEA 22:44 → PSC 23:43AS 2403 · flown by Horizon	6h 05m	97%	83%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 40m Denver	DEN 11:15 → PSC 12:54UA 5298 · flown by SkyWest	7h 54m	98%	80%
American Details →	SFO 08:15 → PHX 10:22AA 2414	1h 37m Phoenix	PHX 11:59 → PSC 14:50AA 6220 · flown by SkyWest	6h 35m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088	3h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → PSC 23:54DL 1712	6h 47m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	SFO 12:27 → SEA 14:35AS 630	1h 53m Seattle	SEA 16:28 → PSC 17:27AS 2367 · flown by Horizon	5h 00m	96%	78%
Alaska Details →	SFO 16:30 → LAX 18:06AS 1523	1h 39m Los Angeles	LAX 19:45 → PSC 22:17AS 3303 · flown by SkyWest	5h 47m	93%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SFO 19:24 → SLC 22:14DL 2652	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → PSC 23:54DL 1712	4h 30m	74%	60%
Delta Details →	SFO 10:35 → SEA 12:48DL 2870	52m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → PSC 14:54DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	4h 19m	63%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON