Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5904 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 5904 SFO 08:10 → PSP 09:56 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 5212 SFO 12:12 → PSP 13:56 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5904 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:10	PSP 09:56	14%	7%	0.8%	91%
UA 5354 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 15:56	PSP 17:46	24%	11%	0.8%	77%
UA 5705 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:38	PSP 20:26	24%	11%	0.8%	83%
AS 3356 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:19	PSP 21:57	27%	12%	0.9%	61%
AS 3081 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:31	PSP 15:11	30%	15%	0.8%	31%
UA 5312 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:40	PSP 15:26	31%	15%	0.7%	72%
UA 5212 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:12	PSP 13:56	33%	15%	0.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON